Brexit's Boris Johnson

to Brexit or not to Brexit? That is the pending referendum on the UKs participation in the European project

Betting on Brexit or not to Brexit?  A political and economic question, what’s you opinion?  We’re not going to try and predict this one instead leaving to our visitors to make up their own minds on this great topic for political betting.

It’s not all about curvy bananas.

Remember that one, UK shops where not allow to sell bananas that are too curvy.  Growers where required to throw away bananas that have too much curvature.  That was real, but, it was repealed because a lot of perfectly good food would have been ruined.

Critics of the UK’s inclusion in the European Union would argue that our Government is loosing it’s sovereignty to un-elected bureaucrats in Brussels.  Certain members of parliament such as Boris Johnson have been very outspoken on the issue, and who can blame them, in some respects they are being done out of a job.  They ask why should UK citizens be dictated to as to what laws we have to abide by?  Frustrated by crazy European directives and regulations.

Then there was the one about the EU banning claims that water prevents dehydration.  That’s right, that actually happened.  After a three year investigation there was no evidence to disprove this previously undisputed fact.  Hmm, there is probably a reason it has never been disputed..  This one was about letting manufacturers label water saying “consumption fights dehydration”.  Another crazy headline grabbing regulation.  But, the investigation had wider implications and it was not just about labels on bottles of water, but product manufacturers making false claims about the health benefits of using their products.  A more serious side to the story.  Some might say who cares let common sense prevail, but, some products can be harmful to certain people.

Here are the top arguments for and against Brexit.

For Brexit

  • It will free up small business from the burden regulations.  Small business and entrepreneurial activity are central to the Governments economic plan.
  • UK tax payers pay in more than we get back.
  • A slow and orderly exit will allow various trade deals to be negotiated.  We will negotiate our own deals with Asia, where Britain’s long standing history in the region could benefit deal making.
  • On an economic basis the EU does not work.  The solution is a politically driven integration of tax, monetary policy, and regulations;  A United States of Europe by another name.  It worked for the American but they all speak the same language. Something that does not apply to Europe.
  • UK Government lose power and Sovereignty meaning we lose control of our destiny.  Increasing the chances of big policy mistake made by faceless un-elected  bureaucrats in Brussels, whereby the interests of big business out weight those of the people.  Case in point is the diesel emissions scandal.

Against Brexit

  • Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.  Short term economic impacts could be bad for working families and everyday folk.
  • Outside the EU the value of pound sterling could drop significantly forcing the Bank of England to raise interest rates.  This could trigger a depression.  House prices would drop significantly.
  • UK residents would no longer be able to settle elsewhere in the EU as they can now with ease.
  • EU membership gives us more bargaining power for our companies and foreign policy.
  • Stronger as part of the Union, allowing Britain to reduce the size of it’s armed forces, allowing the UK to punch above it’s weight.
  • A good deal has already been negotiated for the UK’s inclusion in the Union.
  • Peace! There have been no wars between countries inside the EU.

We almost forgot the elephant in the room, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The CAP is the most expensive EU policy and long derided across all UK political parties.  Slowly the CAP has been reformed.  The purpose of the CAP is to provide a stable food supply, but the problem was that the solution provided by politicians was too simplistic and it created massive over supply (in 1986 their where wine lakes and butter mountains).  To protect supply farmers produce was bought up if prices dropped below a certain level, as directed by the CAP. The European Economic Community ended up with huge amounts of unwanted food.  Over a million tons of cheap butter was dumped on foreign markets: causing havoc with poor farmers in third world countries.

Links between subsidies and production where later removed. Allowing supply an demand to find a balance.  Farmers are no longer subsidised to over farm their land, hedgerows are protected and fertilizers are no longer intensively used.  The CAP now encourages better farming practices such as leaving land fallow encouraging wild life to florish, rotating crops, and management of public rights of way.  Where is it still going wrong?  CAP subsidies are now paid on a per hectare basis rewarding individuals like the Queen, Duchy of Cornwall etc, or big business like Tate & Lyle just because they own lots of land.  A pragmatic approach is being taken to CAP reform so perhaps these problems will not persist for ever.

Other benefits are that it has prevented the spread of super farms over taking the countryside by keeping small farmers in business, which protects the diversity of produce.  The UK’s food supply is now very secure and we benefit from low food prices due to the CAP.  Farmers worry about the carnage that may result from having to re-negotiate their trading terms with their biggest market right on their doorstep.  In simple terms Britain still pays a lot more for the CAP then it gets back which is ‘vote leave’s’ main economic bug bear.

There will be no prediction from us on Brexit. We’re going to leave it up to you.  Here’s different way to play the referendum.

What about a bet on Boris Johnson.  The former Mayor of London has been running the Vote Leave campaign.  The Prime Minister has said that he will stand down if the UK does Brexit.  If Johnson’s vote leave campaign is successful he is paving the way for his leadership campaign.  Johnson is currently the odds-on favourite to be the next prime minister.  A lay bet on Betfair that he will not be the next Prime Minister could be a canny wager.  A ‘vote remain’ with save Mr Cameron’s bacon and Johnson won’t have a chance.  Check out our guide to Betfair.  Check out Betfair’s account opening offer.

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