How to select a horse that will turn into a steamer or drifter

Successful horse betting on Betfair using steamers and drifters relies on using a good selection system. Lets look at some methods of selecting which horse will steam and which will drift.

The first selection method uses the Betfair display. Below you can see one row for captain cool. There are 3 columns that show the last 3 odds that have been offered by Betfair members. Shown as deimal odds in the image below. Underneath the decimal odds is the unmatched bet value. Money that has either 'backed' on the left side in blue or 'layed' on the right side in pink. It is unmatched because other Betfair members have not decided to accept those odds and match the other side of the bet. Add up the total of unmatched bets in the back columns in blue and add up those on the lay side, on the right side in pink.

As you can see from the image above the unamatched back bets add up to £339. Those on the lay side total £52. This indicates that there are more people who have backed the horse than layed the horse. Betfair works using market principles, so, you can expect the forces of supply and demand to correct the inbalance. If lay bettors want their bets to be matched they will have to lengthen their odds to offer higher rewards to backers. This indicates a potential drifter. If the reverse is true it would indicate a potential steamer. The bets remain unmatched if longer odds are not offered.

One horse can not be taken in isolation. It should be considered in relation to the others in the race. The greater the difference in unmatched bets on one side to the other compared to the other runners the stronger the indicator.

As you might imagine this is not a cast iron strategy. There are some important caveats to take into account.

1. Expect a certain amount of random movement in the betting odds. It is important to assing some rules to how you sport drifters or steamers. Keep records so that you can spot trends for different types of races. Records will help you refine your strategy.

2. Beware of market manipulation. Traders may make what are called 'spoof' bets. A bet that they do not want to be matched. The idea is that the cause the odds to change in a certain direction. When the odds move they will remove the unmatched bet. They are then free to place their real bet at better odds.

3. Large single bets can distort the market in either direction. Other participants that enter the market have to offer highter or lower odds to get their bets matched. This effect remains until the bet is taken away or it is fully matched.

There are other tools available to help verify whether a horse is drifting or steaming. For each horse or line you can access a price/volume chart plotted over time. You can access the price volume chart by clicking the icon to the left of the horse's name. If the graph shows a constant increase or decrease this indicates that odds have been increasing or decreasing consistantly.

Before using indicators to confirm that a horse is steaming or drifting you need a system to aid selecting which horses are possible steamers or drifters. If you use a system that helps find winners then use this to help find steamers. The best candidates are those who have good chances, which are not reflected in the odds. Back the horse and then lay the horse when the odds shorten.

This works in the opposite direction if you use a system that selects losers. You need to find a horse who is priced to be a winner.

A good way to compare odds is to compare those of the horse you suspect of being a steamer or drifter against the favourite and second / third placed favourites.

The key to trading horse odds on Betfair is to be able to indentify which horses are likely to steam or drift. You can use various ratings systems to do this.

Most systems only look at horse 2 hours before the off. Most money is placed just 10 minutes before. It is possible to programme some betting bots to spot steamers and drifters. How can you spot horses who's odds are too long or too short?

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