Last season, the race for the Premier League Golden Boot went down to the wire with Tottenham’s Harry Kane finishing top of the pile with an impressive haul of 25 goals. Trailing in joint-second place with a total of 24 goals each were Sergio Aguero of Manchester City and Jamie Vardy of title winners Leicester City.
Outside of the top three, there was a six-goal gap to fourth-placed Romelu Lukaku who managed a tally 18 of strikes for a struggling Everton side, while Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez bagged a commendable 17 goals from a wide midfield position.
With that in mind, it is realistic to suggest that Kane, Aguero and Vardy will be amongst the main contenders again this season. Kane and Aguero have both scored more than 20 goals in the last two seasons and will start as favourites with the Argentinean available at 10/3, while Kane looks good value at a current price of 6/1.
Vardy ‘s performance came out of nowhere last season and the bookies do not fancy him to build on that performance, hence a rather long price of 16/1. However, the Foxes man could be even sharper this term after undergoing surgery to resolve a wrist issue that plagued him during the last campaign.
Of course, there are some other strong contenders to consider. Romelu Lukaku bagged 18 goals last season for an Everton side that finished in the bottom half of the table. If new boss Ronald Koeman can get the Toffees playing to the 23-year-old’s strengths, he could be on course for his first 20-plus haul. Whether he can get close to the 25-goal average total required to secure the Golden Boot is another question.
History has shown that players who are new to the league, rarely bag the top scorer crown. In fact, Sunderland’s Keven Phillips was the last player to win the Golden Boot at the first attempt when he netted 30 times in the 1999-2000 season. Of course, there will be plenty of people backing Manchester United’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic to buck that trend at the tempting price of 8/1. However, as well as adjusting to the new league, the 34-year-old will also have to put in an age-defying performance to beat his rivals.
Other names in the mix include Liverpool’s Daniel Sturridge, who has the kind of strike rate required but struggles to stay fit for a full campaign. Meanwhile, the Reds could also have a surprise contender in the shape of Divock Origi. The 21-year-old seems to be a favourite of Jurgen Klopp and has progressed dramatically in the last six months. However, he will face stiff competition for a starting place with Sturridge, Ings, Firmino, Mané and Benteke all in contention up front for the Reds.
For betting purposes, Harry Kane looks like the best bet. He has bagged 20 goals or more in the last two campaigns and won the prize last year despite scoring just once in the first two months of the season. His strike rate of 46 goals in 72 appearances in the last two years puts him just behind Aguero but when you consider that he is still only 23 years old, you have to imagine that there is still more to come from the Spurs front man.
You can back Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot at 6/1 (7.00) with Betfair.
For an outside bet in the top scorer market, you can back Divock Origi each-way (to finish in top five) at 33/1 also with Betfair. That’s 33/4 (9.25) for a top five finish.