Sports betting ratings systems

Ratings systems and betting book reviews

A sports betting ratings systems uses information from past sporting events as a means to forecasting the future. The forecast is based on probabilities calculated using factors that can be measured and recorded. The process of measuring and recording has been made much easier with various websites suppling sporting data. With all the factors that go into influencing the end result of a sporting event, some of which can not be determined exactly. Taking this into account it is now suprise that ratings system differ extensively in their complexity.

How do they work?

Betting books with ratings systems

How do ratings systems work?

Most ratings systems work using a points system. Points are added or subtracting using a various quantative or qualitative aspects of the sports.

What are power ratings?

Some points rating systems do not take into account the quality of the opposition. Power ratings take into account the strength of the opposition. Simply, goals, points etc conceded against stronger opposition carry less weight in the ratings calculations than those conceded against weaker sides.

Further reading for sports betting rating systems.

English football

Profitable Football Betting by Paul Steele, explains 15 football forecasting models using points based ratings systems. The aim of each system is to calculate side superiority. Side superiority is calculated differently using points for home and away performance. Performance is calculated using various data indicating team strength. For example, league points, league positions, or goals conceded and scored. However, if you need more complex reasoning then ratings can also be based on match statistics such as shots on goal, corners, and possession.

A ratings system taking the strength of the opposition into account.

Rateform is similar to power ratings in that it takes the qaulity of the teams each side has played in their previous matches. This is important because it has a big impact on the forecast for side superiority. The Rateform system was first published in Professor Elo's book 'The Rating of Chessplayers'. Later adapted by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth in their book The Punter's Revenge (Chapman and Hall computing).

Obviously, the ratings have to be updated after each game is played over the season. Further developed by Bill Hunter, in his book Football Fortunes, he explains the important parts of Rateform are:

  1. each team has a points total or rating which represents its current playing form;
  2. the average number of points for individual teams remains constant at 1,000;
  3. for each match the home and away teams contribute points to a kitty;
  4. the winning team takes the complete points kitty; and that
  5. teams that draw share the kitty.

 

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