Profitable Betfair trading strategies are closely guarded secrets by professional bet traders.  Secrets have to be paid for, normally.   At Let’s Compare Bets we suggest using football stats in combination with winning Betfair trading strategies.  Match selection is almost as important as the Betfair trading strategy being used.

In the 2010 – 2011 Premiership season there was one team that was very good for trading on the fly (or in play trading).  The past is can sometimes be used as a guide to the future so this technique could we be used next season.  Chelsea where very good at coming back fighting if they conceded the first goal.  After conceded the first goal they came back to win over 35% of the time.

Why is this good for bet trading?

Most of the time Chelsea are the favourites in the games they play.  If the underdog scored first markets always expect the favourite to come back fighting and expect goals.  The odds move in a predictable way.  For instance, Chelsea win odds would increase.  After they increase a back bet can be placed with an expectation that the Chelsea will score a goal.  As they start attacking play the odds should decrease which moves the odds lower (in a profitable direction).  Trades can be closed for a profit even if the favourite does score because during the first few minutes after the underdog scores it’s all about expectation that Chelsea will score.

Draw odds also react in a predictable manner. When the underdog scores the odds will increase.  Back the draw and higher odds and wait for the odds to shorten when the favourites start attacking.

Both trading techniques should only be used over a short time frame. Otherwise it’s just betting.  This is really a scalping strategy that looks to make small gains rather than one large gain.  If the trade is left open too long the risk is that the underdog scores again which will cause a loss.  Scalping normally rely on making lots of small gains from small movements in the odds.

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