We have already looked at the Grand National favourites in our recent preview, but what about the long shots?

Picking an outside bet for the Grand National outsider is never easy; in fact picking a winner at all is pretty tough in such an unpredictable race. The last three winners have been priced at 25/1, 66/1 and 33/1 respectively and five horses have won the race with a starting price of 100/1 or more.

100/1 Grand National winners

  • 1928 – Tipperary Tim
  • 1929 – Gregalach
  • 1947 – Caughoo
  • 1967 – Foinavon
  • 2009 – Mon Mome

Of course, all punters dream of landing a winner at a big price, so let’s have a look to see if there are any potential long shots in this year’s race.

The profile of a Grand National long shot

If we look back at the history, there are not too many clues as to what makes a successful 100/1 Grand National outsider. Tipperary Tim and Foinavon both had to rely on the misfortunes of the rest of the field to snatch their victories. In fact, the 1928 winner was the only horse that did not fall that year, and one of only two finishers in the race; while Foinavon was trailing in last place, when all 27 of the other horses famously tumbled in a pile-up at the 23rd fence in 1967.

This leaves us with quite a small and not very reliable sample size to make any valid judgement, but if we look at all the winners that were priced at 50/1 or more, our list extends to twelve horses.

The most common age of the 50/1+ winners was 9 (5 winners) with an average age of 8.9, and the common weight was 10.00 with an average weight of 10.1

If we apply this very loose science to this year’s top 50 race candidates, we are left with three horses that come close to this benchmark.

  • Bailey’s Concerto – 9-10.2
  • Gallant Oscar – 9-9.13
  • Vintage star – 9-9.13

Of these three horses, Vintage Star and Gallant Oscar are probably too far down the list to make it to the final line-up, which leaves us with Bailey’s Concerto. The Dianne Sayer-trained nine-year-old is number 41 on the card and needs just one withdrawal to make the final 40, which is very possible.

You can back Bailey’s Concerto at a price of 80/1 with Bet365

More big-price Grand National contenders

If our pick does not make the race, there are still plenty of horses that could win at a decent price. One that really catches the eye but is not quite such a big price is Royale Knight. Last year’s winning trainer Richard Newland has another decent horse on his hands and could cause another upset this year. Young Brendan Powell will be in the saddle, attempting to emulate the success of his National-winning father Brendan Senior.

Royale Knight is now priced @ 28/1 with Bet365

If you want another tip at a big price, then look no further than Court by Surprise. This horse is a year older than our long shot criteria requires but don’t let that put you off. This Emma Lavelle-trained ten-year-old has enjoyed great form and had been specially prepared for this race – the weight bracket is also spot-on. Richie McLernon is a highly-rated jump jockey and will have a great chance of guiding this 50/1 shot to victory.

Back Court by Surprise @ 50/1 with Bet365

If you are still not convinced, you can always grab a pin, close your eyes and hope for the best!

Leave a Reply