Boris Johnson has called an early election. The previous snap election was called by Theresa May in April 2017 presumably to decide the pressing issue of dealing with the fallout from the Brexit vote. Before that it was 1974: Labour called the election and won.
What is the motive this time? To win back a majority so that Brexit can be finalised or capitalise on some perceived advantage over Labour. Who knows, but, politics in the UK is hotting up. More people than ever are getting interested in the political debate. Jobs, immigration, Brexit, jobs, welfare spending, spending, more spending, a trend of people becoming self employed but not having enough work, NHS spending, jobs, job security, the NHS, and spending. You get the drill.
Both parties are going to spend. Something of a back track from Labour’s previous stance. The conservatives are going to spend, push for a Brexit that allows the United Kingdom to negotiate trade deals on our terms with the rest of the world. The USA will be woo’ed with tasty trade deals including more access to the NHS and flexibility on drug pricing. A conservative government will be more sanguine on the issue of tax and technology companies like Facebook, Google, and Microsoft which have benefited from being able to pick and choose their tax jurisdiction. In return, voters may benefit from more investment from these companies generating jobs, development, and access to new and exiting services like Google Maps.
Labour will spend including nationalising water and sewerage companies, the National Grid, electricity transmission and distribution networks, rail rolling stock, and the Royal Mail. A plan that would be funded by the profits from these companies. A 1970’s style manifesto aimed at We The People with an environmental twist promoting electric cars and wind power. A shorter working week which will affect (benefit?) the ‘working classes’ more than others. A campaign definitely aimed at younger voters. Holder’s of financial assets may not benefit from a Labour Government if full market value is not paid for assets that face nationalisation. It’s anyone’s guess what they are worth depending on how the debt and pension obligations on the books are valued. Furthermore, pensions funds could take a hit depending on how Labour deal with public private partnerships which generate much needed income for pensions in a world of low interest rates.
What about the Chief Rabbi? An interesting marketing ploy by the conservatives? Jew bashing clearly isn’t on the election manifesto, but, it’s a bit sinister all the same. Why? you may ask. Let’sCompareBets is going down that rabbit hole.
On to the betting, but first….. the deadline for registering to vote is over. So if you are not on the electoral role you’ve just forfeited your god given right to the vote and you are not allowed to moan about the result afterwards….. even if you where going to vote for the Green Party anyhow. You could remind someone not to forget to vote, and to pass that on.
Who’s going to win the election?
The power to call a snap election normally lies with the incumbent party so would only normally be called if they think it can be won. Political parties no longer have free reign and powers have been curtailed by act of parliament to stop the power being abused.
December 12th will be a two horse race….. but don’t under estimate the importance of the wonky donkeys bringing up the rear; namely the canny Nigel Farage. The Brexit Party says it all, and, Mr Farage is still mixing things up in the Eurozone. However, not everyone thinks it’s a two horse race including Willie Rennie the Scottish Lib Dem leader.
What have the conservatives got going for them?
being the incumbent party
being tough on Brexit
standing our ground on the Geopolitical stage
being more populist….. not with manifesto pledges but with subtle slight of hand; ” Boris Johnson faces criticism over the burka letter box jibe ” headlining on the BBC.
More support from the establishment because they fear change as much as anyone else.
Financial markets….. take a look at the share price performance of SSE the utility company. It’s on the block for nationalisation but the share price does not reflect this. Possibly an indication market participants expect a Conservative win.
How about Labour?
Recent elections have stoked support and interest from more and more people. More younger people are getting involved in politics.
Giving people a sense of taking more control over national assets.
Invigorating working led unions as a means to employees getting their voices heard.
A sense that they’ll be sticking one up the establishment and making some people feel better about their lot, even if it does end up being negative on a net net basis over the long run.
Higher minimum wages.
What should have got onto the election manifesto….
promoting electric vehicles for companies, quasi government entities, and civil services that have a large fleet of vehicles that have predictable mileage and usage. Utilising big data and artificial intelligence where possible to squeeze out much needed productivity gains for the economy.
Back to the betting;
Let’s Compare Bets tips their hat toward the conservatives to win the December 2019 election. Get your best odds on Betfair.com our preferred partner for political betting. Visit them here.
Betting on the financial markets is another idea. International finance will be in favour of a Conservative victory. Pension funds globally are starved of quality income producing financial assets. SSE the UK publicly listed utility company is one such source of income. A conservative win could be beneficial for the company share price due to an influx of funds from overseas. Shares in SSE have a dividend yield many times higher than anything paid from a bank account. So, the bet would be buy shares of SSE between now and the election and set a tight stop loss order that will sell the shares automatically if it drops by more than a certain amount (a feature offered by all good online share dealing services). Anyone familiar with spread betting could hedge their bets with a spread bet on the short side.
Here’s a third option for people who haven’t the foggiest who’s going to win. Check out the Let’s Compare Bets featured review.