English Football League Championship

Play-Off Final – Wembley

Aston Villa vs Derby County

Monday 27th May 2019 – 15:00

It’s the richest match in English football this bank holiday Monday, as Aston Villa take on Derby County at Wembley in the Championship Play-Off Final. The victor in this one-off, winner-takes-all match will return to the English Premier League and guarantee a winfall of around £170 million. The loser will have to lick their wounds and go through another season in the second tier.

Aston Villa Season Review

A poor start to the season saw a managerial change at Aston Villa, although there was no magic cure and they sat outside the top six for most of the season. In fact, a run of just one win in ten league matches saw them sitting as low as 11th at the end of February.

However, ten wins in a row during a twelve match unbeaten run secured their play-off place before a final day defeat at home to Championship champions Norwich City.

Derby County Season Review

Former England international Frank Lampard took charge of Derby County in his first full season, and saw his side overcome an indifferent start to the campaign to climb into the top six by the end of October.

They remained in a top six position for fourteen of the next sixteen weeks, but dropped to seventh for a seven week stint after that. Remaining in or around the top six for the majority of the season was almost for nothing, as they dropped to ninth with just six games left to play.

However, Derby rallied and won four of those matches to end the season with a six match unbeaten run and secured sixth place with a final day victory over West Bromwich Albion.

Play-Off Semi Finals

Villa looked to be struggling in the first leg of their Semi Final against West Brom, trailing 1-0 with just over fifteen minutes left. They fought back though, with Conor Hourihane equalising and Tammy Abraham netting from the spot to give them a 2-1 win and a slight advantage heading into the second leg.

That second leg finished in a 1-0 defeat, to level the aggregate scores at 2-2 and take the tie into a nail-biting penalty shoot-out. The Aston Villa players held their nerves to net four out of their five spot kicks and book their place in the Final.

Derby were up against it in their Semi Final. Their opponents Leeds United had been top at Christmas, with history showing whoever held that position usually went on to win promotion one way or another.

A 1-0 home defeat in the first leg increased how tough it was for them, and it got tougher when Leeds doubled their aggregate advantage after 24 minutes of the second leg. Derby were not to be denied though and two goals from Jack Marriott, as well as one from Mason Mount and a spot kick from Harry Wilson gave them a 4-2 win on the night and a 4-3 aggregate victory.

Head to Head

Derby’s 2-0 home league victory in December 2017 is their only win over Aston Villa in their last nine meetings, stretching back to December 2001. In that time, Villa have won six and the other two finished level.

This season, Villa won both matches convincingly. A 3-0 away victory was followed by a 4-0 home win, with Hourihane netting three goals and Abraham scoring twice in the two meetings.

Team News

Aston Villa defender Axel Tuanzebe faces a late fitness test after picking up an injury during the semi finals, while James Chester is definitely ruled out.

Derby could be boosted by the return of striker Martyn Waghorn, who missed both legs of the semi final through injury. He has returned to training and could be back in the starting XI for this match. If that is the case, Jack Marriott will likely drop to the bench.

Full-Back Scott Malone will definitely miss this match through suspension, and Craig Bryson is facing a fight to be fit in time to take part.

Betting Odds

Aston Villa are slight favourites for the win, priced at 23/20 at Betfair. Derby are 5/2, with the draw priced at 11/5.

With only two draws in the last thirty-one meetings between these sides, it is likely there will be a winner after 90 minutes. However, if you do believe the match will require extra time and/or penalties to separate these sides there are markets available.

Aston Villa are priced at 17/2 to win after extra time, and the same price to win via penalty shoot-out. Derby are 12/1 to win AET and 9/1 to be victorious after penalties.

Having looked through all the available markets, the best value may come in the goalscorer market, with Conor Hourihane looking a particularly fantastic bet.

The Irish international has netted three times against Derby this season, and opened the scoring in Villa’s semi final first leg, and is an attractive 5/1 to score in 90 minutes here. He actually scored first in the last meeting against Derby and is 10/1 to do so again.