Regular readers will know, and Betfair traders with experience, that trading betting markets on Betfair should be done by selecting the best matches to trade.  Selecting matches  by other means will cause profits to drain away, and loses to take hold.  Trading the best matches involves stone cold analysis of team stats and knowledge of recent form, injury news and changes in management staff. Try to ignore bias during the decision making process if possible.  For instance, do not trade a team you support unless the stats suggest you should.

Here’s an important stat about a Premiership team;

  • Man City did not concede a single goal in the first 15 minutes in any of their 19 Home games last season (100%)

Man City like to take their time.  This is great news for people who want to trade the draw market.  The longer a match progresses without goals the lower draw odds become, naturally because, the likelihood of a draw increase as the end of the match gets closer.

Trade the draw odds of Man City against the right opponents and there will be more winning trades.  Check goals conceded and time of first goal stats for their opponents.

Hull play Man City at home 27th September at 15.00.

Hull average just 1.5 goals conceded when they play at Home.  Considering Man City’s preference of scoring goals later in the match trading the draw looks like a good choice.  Back the draw at the start of the match, wait 10 minutes, or an amount of time that fits with your trading style, and lay the bet at lower odds later for a profit.

Newcastle United and Hull City

  • Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of Newcastle’s last 6 Home games (83%)
  • Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 of Hull’s last 8 Away games (75%)

Trading the Over 2.5 goals market when Newcastle or Hull play the right opponents is also of interest.

Hull City play Arsenal away at Emirates Stadium 18th October. Arsenal have scored an average of 4 goals per match at home so far this season and a 100% record of scoring more than 2.5 goals.

This match and others should produce a number of great trading opportunities.  Check the up coming matches and the stats for Newcastle and Hull City’s opponents and get trading.


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