Readers will know that we follow a trading strategy based on backing a draw at high odds and laying the same result later for a profit when odds have dropped.

For the draw odds to drop traders rely on the match not producing any goals. With out goal the likelihood of a draw increases. One of the best indicators of a game that is good for trading is ‘time of first goal’. When Liverpool play at home the average time of first goal is 39 minutes and 32 minutes for Arsenal play away from home.

Two strong teams who have similar shots on target stats. Arsenal do score an average of half a goal per match more than Liverpool, but Arsenal concede nearly half a goal on average. The match looks to be quite evenly matched, with Arsenal being the favourite by a small margin.

As the match is evenly matched and the time of first goal is over 30 minutes for both teams, this should count as a medium to high confidence trade.

Leave a Reply