Not everything went as expected in this example of Betfair trading. This post explains how our trader traded the game between Liverpool and Tottenham using Bet Trader Software on Betfair. Our advice was to consider trading the draw, namely, lay the draw and back later to secure a profit (using bet trading software), or, trading the over ‘2.5 goals’ market.
Trading the ‘over 2.5’ goal market
This went very well. Our trader noticed that the odds for ‘over 2.5’ goals was just above evens. The stats indicated that more than two goals in this game is not likely.
For simplicity let’s look at the image to the right to see what happened. The image has been taken from Bet Trader software. It is of the ladder view of Betfair. The odds of the Over ‘2.5 goals’ market is shown in the center column. The current odds are shown in yellow. To place a lay bet or a back bet one mouse click is required on the pink column to lay or on the blue column to back. If the bet is placed at the current odds it should be filled quickly. If it is placed above or below the current odds the bet is filled when the market reaches that level.
At the start of the game the odds for over 2.5 goals was 2.08. A £10 lay bet was placed at this level by clicking the pink box to the left. At the end of the first half the odds moved to 5.3. Bet Trader displays the profit or loss of each trade at the top right hand side for each market. One of the best features of Bet Trader is the hedge function. By clicking the profit / loss figure, shown in the red circle top right, Bet Trader places a corresponding back bet to secure a profit.
The image was taken just after our trader hedged the trade, which is called ‘greening up’. The figure circled in red half way down the image shows the back bet being filled.
Our trader closed the trade at half time. On review that might have been too early. It was a lackluster game and as no goals had been scored it would have been worth the risk to let the trade run into the second half.
Within the first few minutes of the second half, which is often what dictates what will happen in the last 45 minutes, the odds jumped from 5.3 to 8.6. That would have increased the profit even more.
Trading the draw
One of the first lessons to learn as a bet trader is that things never always go to plan. Learning to limit losses is just as important has learning to make winning trades.
The game ended in a 0 – 0 draw. Not good for trading the draw and if left to run would have caused a loss. Two warning signals made our trader decide to exit this trade quickly. 1) Tottenham’s manager, Harry Rednap, was not present because he was stranded at an airport. Tottenham was not playing attacking football and played in a conservative formation. 2) The game started very slowly and without Liverpool’s star player Luis Suarez.
Exiting the trade early allowed our trader to limited the loss on this trade. Our trader uses a stop loss. If the trade hits a level of loss that is not acceptable the trader normally exits the trade. Experienced traders might not do this, because the teams might be playing good football. The lack of goals could just be down to chance, indicating that it’s only a matter of time before a goal is scored. Attacking football looks like lots of corners being won, lots of forward passes, and width of play with the ball be passed out wide. Another reason a trader might let the trade run is that the loss from the trade as a whole might be within the money management limits that the trader has set. That is to say that the loss would only be a small proportion of the overall trading bank.
Some points to take from this post would be that it’s a good idea to watch the start of the match and listen for important news. For instance, Harry Rednap wasn’t present, and Luis Suarez did not start the game. If the game looks dull at the start either don’t trade or exit early.
Don’t worry if it’s not possible to draw from the draw market because there’s always profit to be made in the over / under goals market. Get more post and trading advice by signing up to our news feed by clicking the link top right, or bookmark Let’s Compare Bets by pressing ‘Control D’ on your keyboard.