Using football statistics our trader highlighted a match between Bayer Leverkusen Vs Racing Genk as a good opportunity for swing trading the draw.  Trading football games on Betfair is a popular pastime for people who want to profit from movements  in the odds on this popular betting exchange.  Trading the draw is a well known method of trading football matches: described in an earlier post about football trading on Betfair.

In the game between Bayer Leverkusen and Racing Genk our trader expected that Bayer would score first.  This made sense because the goal statistics suggested this and Bayer where the favourites.  The only indication that the game would not go as expected was that Bayer had already qualified in their group for the European Champions League and didn’t need to win the game to get through to the knock out stage.  In addition Genk had also won their last 2 games at home.  Well, the unexpected happened and Genk scored in the 30th minute.

A novice might think that’s a good thing if you are betting that the game will not end draw.  Technically the trade is not betting on anything except that the odds will move in a favourable direction allowing the trader to place a counter trade, using trading software, to guarantee a profit.  If any explanation is required follow the link above.

Instead what happens if the underdog scores first is that the odds will not move that much.  In this situation a trade might produce a slight loss.  The extent of this move is determined by the difference in quality of the opposing teams.  The reason for this phenomenon is that the chance of a draw does not really change if there is a high chance that the favourites will score. Which of course Bayer Leverkusen went on to do.

After Genk scored the odds moved slightly into profitable territory, but only for a short time.  Our trader exited the trade  as quickly as possible.  As the goal is scored the chance of the draw decreases and the odds increase for a short period of time.  At this point other traders will be exiting their trades and the draw odds contract reducing the profit or turning the trade negative.

In this situation the trader needs Betfair software that can place the counter trade in the market very quickly enabling the trader to get their counter bet in before other Betfair members.  Let’s Compare Bets recommends Bet Trader by Racing Traders.  One reason for this recommendation is that they have a free version, although, the premium version gives the extra speed necessary for exiting trades quickly.  Subscribe to our posts to get more Betfair trading tips (the button is top right).

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