Strong trends in European football we can used for Betfair trading - Lets

Neil has just written about the over 2.5 goal market on the blog. With a quarter of the season past in the European leagues the sample size is big enough to give us some data that can be used for trading. So who is hot in the European Leagues?

Interestingly there are 11 teams with a strike rate of 85% or more of their games producing over 2.5 goals per game. Here is the list of teams playing at home in English, European and USA top tier leagues.

  • Bayern Munich (Bundesliga) – 100%
  • Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) – 100%
  • Sevilla (La Liga) – 100%
  • Colombus Crew SC (MLS Eastern) – 88.9%
  • Chesterfield (League One) – 87.5%
  • York City (League two) – 87.5%
  • Cagliari (Serie B) – 85.7%
  • Forfar Athletic (Scottish League One) – 85.7%
  • Freiburg (2. Bundesliga) – 85.7%
  • Rangers (Scottish Championship) – 85.7%
  • PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie) – 85.7%

Here is a list for away games.

  • Espanyol (La Liga) – 100%
  • PAOK FC (Superleague Greece) – 100%
  • Rio Ave (Primeira Liga) – 100%
  • Scunthorpe (League One) – 100%
  • Stuttgart (Bundesliga) – 100%
  • Colchester (League One) – 87.5%
  • Crawley Town (League Two) – 87.5%
  • Dagenham and Redbridge (League Two) – 87.5%
  • KVC Westerlo (Belgian Pro League) – 87.5%
  • Helsingborgs IF (Allsvenskan) – 86.7%
  • Nurnberg (2.Bundesliga) – 85.7%
  • PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie) – 85.7%
  • St Johnstone (Scottish Premiership) – 85.7%
  • Zulte Waragem (Belgian Pro League) – 85.7%
  • There are lots of ways this information can be used for trading. First thing that comes to mind is making strategic bets in the correct score market when any team in the top list is playing a team in the bottom list. Lay bets could include laying 0-0, 1 – 0 and 0 – 1 score lines. Perhaps making a back bet for score lines like 3 – 1, 1 – 2, or 2 – 1. Use average goals scored home and away data (available on stats websites) to choose which goal number to use for each team.

    Using Betfair software you can close out the trade before the end of the match when the odds move in your favour rather than letting the bets run to the finish. Some traders make large bets in the pre-start market and close them out as early as possible (possibly before the match has started) hoping to benefit from small movements in the odds.

    This information could be used for selecting matches for lay the draw trading. Choose any team from the top or bottom list against an opponent that has a high goals conceded figure or high corners conceded figure for the corresponding home or away games.

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