Saturday 24 May 2014 19:45

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid – Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

Referee: Björn Kuipers

Portugal plays host as two teams from the Spanish capital battle it out in this year’s Champions League final. Real Madrid are favourites with the bookmakers but their arch rivals – and recently-crowned champions of La Liga, Atletico Madrid – will be keen to upset the odds and complete an incredible double.

Atletico Madrid finished the league campaign with a vital draw against Barcelona at the Camp Nou to seal their first La Liga title in 18 years. Real Madrid had a disappointing finish to their league season but that could soon be forgotten with a historic tenth European Cup victory.

League matches involving Real Madrid this season averaged a total of 3.7 goals per game and Ancelotti’s team were the top scorers with 104 goals. They also had the most shots on target with an average of 11.3 pr game. Matches involving Atletico only averaged 2.7 goals per game but Simeone’s men conceded fewer than their neighbours. Atleti were fourth bottom of the shots on target table but had the second best conversion ratio. These stats suggest that this game has a good chance of producing over 2.5 goals.

In the league, Atletico had one win and a draw against their rivals but Real Madrid won their Copa del Rey semi-final clash. There is very little to split the teams and a lot could depend on the fitness of key players. Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale have both been declared fit enough to play but it is unclear whether they are functioning at 100%. Meanwhile, Diego Costa faces a race against time to be ready and has flown to Belgrade to have emergency treatment on the hamstring injury picked up against Barcelona last week.

Real will definitely be without Xabi Alonso after he received a red card in the semi-final against Bayern Munich – and his absence could also be significant.

If Costa does not make it, then both teams will be missing a key player and it will down to who can cope better with the loss. David Villa and Raul Garcia will be expected to take on the goal scoring responsibilities in Costa’s absence and the pair have managed 22 league goals between them this season. The absence of Alonso could have the biggest impact of all and Los Blancos have certainly looked weaker without him in the team.

Match Prediction:

Real Madrid 1 – 2 Atletico Madrid

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